Violence... The story so far

When looking at Murders per capita one finds a huge difference in rates across the world. Every year Columbia murders some 385 times as many people as does Qatar! Italy, the home of the MAFIA, has a murder rate more than three times less than that of the US. The five safest reporting countries are all in Asia or the Middle East. All have murder rates less than 18% that of the US! What war are we fighting anyway? And why?

Rank	Country	Rate/1,000
1	Columbia	0.617
2	South Africa:	0.496
3	Jamaica:	0.324
4	Venezuela:	0.316
5	Russia:	0.201
6	Mexico:	0.130
7	Estonia:	0.107
8	Latvia:	0.103
9	Lithuania:	0.102
10	Belarus:	0.0983
11	Ukraine:	0.0940
12	Papua New Guinea:	0.0838
13	Kyrgyzstan:	0.0802
14	Thailand:	0.0800
15	Moldova:	0.0781
16	Zimbabwe:	0.0749
17	Seychelles:	0.0739
18	Zambia:	0.0707
19	Costa Rica:	0.0610
20	Poland:	0.0562
21	Georgia:	0.0511
22	Uruguay:	0.0451
23	Bulgaria:	0.0446
24	United States:	0.0428
25	Armenia:	0.0426
26	India:	0.0344
27	Yemen:	0.0336
28	Dominica:	0.0290
29	Finland:	0.0286
30	Azerbaijan:	0.0283
31	Slovakia:	0.0263
32	Romania:	0.0251
33	Portugal:	0.0234
34	Malaysia:	0.0230
35	Macedonia:	0.0230
36	Mauritius:	0.0211
37	Hungary:	0.0205
38	Korea, South:	0.0196
39	Slovenia:	0.0179
40	France:	0.0173
41	Czech Republic:	0.0170
42	Iceland:	0.0168
43	Australia:	0.0150
44	Canada:	0.0149
45	Chile:	0.0147
46	United Kingdom:	0.0141
47	Italy:	0.0128
48	Spain:	0.0122
49	Germany:	0.0116
50	Tunisia:	0.0112
51	Netherlands:	0.0112
52	New Zealand:	0.0112
53	Denmark:	0.0107
54	Norway:	0.0107
55	Ireland:	0.00946
56	Switzerland:	0.00921
57	Indonesia	0.00911
58	Greece:	0.00759
59	Hong Kong:	0.00551
60	Japan:	0.00500
61	Saudi Arabia:	0.00397
62	Qatar:	0.00116

AVERAGE 0.0659
Data source: UNITED NATIONS

Qatar has a murder rate less than three percent (3%) that of the US. On the other end of the scale, Columbia has a rate some fourteen (14) times that in the US. Of course, their drug war accounts for most of that.


Given that illegal drugs lead to ancillary crime in the forms of drug wars, robbery, and burglary, added to the cost of imprisonment, along with the loss in national productivity incurred:


To our North, again in this hemisphere:

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Background For Discussion and Research
Using valid statistical analyses:

The most murderous nine (Over 10/100,000) differ significantly from the 53 less murderous nations.

1 Columbia, 62
2 South Africa, 50
3 Jamaica, 32
4 Venezuela, 32
5 Russia, 20
6 Mexico, 13
7 Estonia, 11

Nations in the above group depart significantly from the less-violent group.

8 Latvia, 10
9 Lithuania, 10

Ranks 8,9 are the top end of the group where rates range from 1 to 10 per 100,000, average 10/100,000.

The Safest Eight average less than 1/100,000.

55 Ireland, 1
56 Switzerland, 1
57 Indonesia, 1
58 Greece, 0.7
59 Hong Kong, 0.6
60 Japan, 0.5
61 Saudi Arabiam 0.4
62 Qatar, 0.1

Alert research would:

• Compare societies 1-5 with societies 58-62 in terms of well-defined social variables (practices).
• Compare group 7-9 with group 60 -62 in terms of well-defined social variables (practices).
• Correlate all variables selected in studies of the extremes over all 62 countries using Chi Square, or other statistical techniques where and as appropriate.
• Consider reporting disparities.
• Suggest avenues needing further study.

Selection of variable comes first. Not all possible variables for every country are avaialble. Nevertheless, a beginning would include variables that are available, such as gender for example.

One must take care here. The breaks we made were convenient mathematically. For example, the three Baltic countries do not differ with one another even though they fell into separate groupings in our analysis. Our main point here is that some societies differ dramatically for certain others, and the question of "why?" is worth pursuing.


Suggestions below are just for starters. Effective research, properly conducted, identifies forks in the road and raises new questions as earlier ones find answer. Progress is made thereby.

• Parenting methods, and educational system;
• Homogeneity of society in terms of ethnicity;
• Relative homogeneity of religion;
• Type of religion: monotheism, Eastern etc.;
• Level of literacy;
• Level of ethnic integration;
• Educational system--there are nested variables here;
• Social nets and types for the aged, infirm or indigent;
• Level of foreign investment;
• Levels of recources and degree of exploitation;
• Gun control laws;
• Gender equality;
• Domestic product per capita;
• Per capita income and its ratio to per capita product value;
• Social history;
• Measures of violence other than murder, (look for correlates and interactions) and
• Governance type.
• ETC

In statistical surveys such as these, one must keep in mind the "test-wise error" which is related to the significance level selected. If we look at 100 variables at a significance of 0.05, we will typically return five significant results at random where there is no effect. This means that if we find 20 significant results, only 15 of them are likely to be real. In that event, more work on all of them is indicated to determine the real effects.

In conducting this research, no question is too sensitive (to human sensibilities) to preclude objective reserch. In fact, human sensibility may itself be a subject of research. After all, each and every one of us is biased in some way or other. That is why we project our views of behavior, thought patterns and belief systems upon others! Language differences add a further dimension.

It is also true that economic, governmental and religious factors will limit, or try to limit, studies that might raise questions regarding their very legitimacy and existence.

For all these reasons, we must get on with it. Once a valid and representative data base comes into being, mining the data becomes a piece of cake in comparison--if done right, which brings to mind an adage attributed to Mark Twain:

Statistics don't lie, Statisticians do.